Impact of New U.S. Trade Policies on Mexican Exports

Over the past year, Mexico’s agricultural exports to the United States have experienced significant fluctuations in prices and volumes due to new trade policies implemented by the U.S. government in 2025.

In the first quarter of 2025, the United States imposed a series of tariffs on Mexican products, beginning in January with a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum in an effort to protect its steel industry. Also in January, a 15% tariff was applied to key agricultural products such as avocados, tomatoes, and fresh strawberries, citing the need to safeguard the U.S. agricultural sector. As the month progressed, tariffs were extended to Mexican electronics and machinery products, with a 10% rate, creating trade tensions between the two countries.

However, by late March 2025, after intense negotiations, the United States began to roll back the tariffs. Duties on agricultural products like avocados and tomatoes were reduced to 10%. Additionally, tariffs on electronic products were cut in half, from 10% to 5%. These reductions were part of efforts to ease trade tensions; however, uncertainty remains regarding the future of these tariffs and their impact on the Mexican economy, raising concerns among the most affected sectors.

Trade Balance: Mixed Results and Opportunities in 2025

Throughout the first quarter of the year, Mexico’s agricultural and agri-food trade balance showed mixed performance, with strengths in certain sectors and opportunities for improvement in others.

Favorable Balance

The agri-food and agricultural sectors recorded trade surpluses of 260 and 844 million dollars, respectively, reflecting strong export capacity and a competitive position in international markets.

The trade balance for agricultural goods posted a surplus of 844 million dollars in the early months of 2025, a 241% increase compared to the previous year. This growth was driven by an 11.5% rise in exports and a 23.8% decrease in imports, indicating improved performance in the agricultural sector.

The following products stood out for their high foreign demand and contribution to the surplus:

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Unfavorable Balance

In contrast, the livestock and beekeeping sectors, as well as the fisheries sector, recorded trade deficits of 164 and 22 million dollars, respectively, highlighting a greater reliance on imported products in these areas.

Some of the best-performing products in terms of sales were:

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The outlook for 2025 presents significant risks. In light of this scenario, various stakeholders in the agri-food sector are analyzing alternatives to counteract the potential impact. In this context, it is essential to closely monitor trade negotiations and strengthen internal strategies to maintain Mexico’s competitiveness in the global market.

Likewise, in an increasingly challenging commercial environment, having precise tools is more important than ever. To obtain more information about the listed products and other export goods, request your CF Trade MX BI Analysis, our specialized trade report that will allow you to anticipate trends, adjust strategies with greater confidence, and identify concrete opportunities for your business growth. With this information, you will be better prepared to strengthen your position against the competition and respond effectively to changes in the global market.

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